My last computer purchase was in 2007, and back in 2010, I confidently predicted that I would not buy another computer for a long time, if ever. In fact, I knew computers as a consumer device were out in 2008, after the purchase of my first iPhone (3g). How did I know this? Well, the details are summarized
here*.
Well, today in 2012, I am confidently predicting the iPhone 5 will be my last smartphone purchase ever. Just as the smartphone made the consumer PC obsolete circa 2008-2009, tablets will make smartphones obsolete very soon. This process has just begun, but the carnage to the existing incumbents will be just as dramatic as it was to the PC companies over the last 2-3 years.
So what's so great about a tablet? Well, I just recently purchased an iPad mini with a 1GB data plan from Verizon ($20/month), and I find this tablet to be actually "mobile." By mobile, I mean the device leaves the house on shopping trips, walks, when running errands, etc., unlike the iPad 3 which was relegated to a home device only. The mini is providing direct competition to my iPhone 5 in terms of usage, and with the larger screen, computing tasks are just easier on that device. However, even more impressive is that the cost of the data plan is so much less than a smartphone contract($20 vs $85), that I canceled cell service for my iPhone 5 and paid the early termination fee. I'll recoup the ETF in 6 months ($65 * 6 = $390) through the monthly savings. Yet, iMessage, FaceTime, Skype, and Google Voice (through Talkatone), will allow the same functionality that Sprint, AT&T, and Verizon was provides. So in summary, the 7 inch tablet factor with a data plan provides a better mobile user experience at a lower cost compared to a smartphone.
Except the 7 inch tablet isn't quite there yet. Despite the revolutionary new form factor, the screen resolution is too low, and processing power is not as powerful as an iPhone 5, and the camera is worse. Most won't accept those tradeoffs yet, but Moore's law will insure that this difference will become negligible over time.
* I actually think a home computer purchase is inevitable, but it could be a long time from now.
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